San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres overcame a home-field environment and a 67 percent pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate favoring Los Angeles to defeat the Dodgers 11-8 at Dodger Stadium on September 11, 2023. San Diego scored in five of nine innings, including a five-run burst in the third that gave them an early foothold, a three-run sixth that extended the lead, and a decisive four-run ninth that put the game out of reach. Los Angeles managed a run in each of the first three innings but never fully answered San Diego's offensive surges, and two defensive errors compounded the home side's troubles.

The biggest single swing of the night came in the top of the ninth when Juan Soto connected on a home run off Evan Phillips, a blow the DiamondIQ model assessed as shifting win probability by plus 27.8 percent in the Padres' favor. Moments later in that same inning, a fielding error also charged to Phillips allowed Trent Grisham to reach base, adding another plus 17.5 percent swing. Earlier in the sixth, Matthew Batten delivered a double off Caleb Ferguson worth plus 17.8 percent, followed shortly by a Manny Machado home run off Gavin Stone at plus 17.0 percent. The Dodgers' most consequential offensive moment was a Mookie Betts double off Ray Kerr in the bottom of the third, which represented a plus 16.0 percent swing, but Los Angeles could not sustain consistent pressure beyond that frame.

Soto finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 25.6 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.4, edging Machado who posted plus 25.5 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.3. Grisham contributed plus 18.0 percent WPA despite a more modest RE24 of plus 0.9. On the pitching side, Robert Suarez led the staff with plus 10.9 percent WPA, followed by Shelby Miller at plus 10.6 percent and Ryan Brasier at plus 8.3 percent, a trio that collectively preserved the advantage San Diego's offense had built across the middle and late innings.