Cleveland Guardians at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The San Francisco Giants walked off the Cleveland Guardians 5-4 in ten innings on September 11, 2023, at Oracle Park, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had overwhelmingly favored by game's end, finishing at 100% after opening with a 58% pre-game home win probability. The Giants trailed heading into the bottom of the tenth but strung together the decisive blows against closer Emmanuel Clase to secure the victory.

The game's single most consequential moment came in the bottom of the tenth when Blake Sabol delivered a walk-off single off Clase that swung win probability by 51.6 percentage points, the largest single-play shift of the night. That hit was set up just moments earlier by LaMonte Wade Jr., whose single off Clase added 28.4 percentage points of win probability and brought home the tying or go-ahead baserunner to create the conditions Sabol ultimately cashed in on. Cleveland had briefly seized momentum in the top half of the tenth when Andrés Giménez lined a single off Luke Jackson that added 31.1 points of win probability, pushing the Guardians to a 4-3 lead. José Tena's strikeout to end the Cleveland threat was itself worth 14.4 points in San Francisco's favor. Josh Naylor had given Cleveland an earlier lift with a third-inning home run off Alex Cobb that swung probability 20.1 points toward the visitors.

By the WPA and RE24 ledger, Sabol finished as the game's most impactful offensive player at plus-42.3% WPA and plus-0.8 RE24, while Wade Jr. and Giménez posted plus-33.8% and plus-34.2% respectively, each topping 0.9 RE24. On the mound, Camilo Doval led all pitchers with plus-25.7% WPA, followed by Reynaldo López at plus-16.2% and Taylor Rogers at plus-6.6%, a trio that held Cleveland scoreless across the final frames long enough for the Giants offense to finish the job.