Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | - | 5 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Kansas City Royals 5-2 on September 10, 2023, at Rogers Centre, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a 77% pre-game home win probability, which ultimately climbed to 100% by the final out. The game was scoreless through five innings before both teams broke through in the sixth, and Toronto never relinquished its advantage from that point forward.
The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the sixth, when Alejandro Kirk drew a walk off Cole Ragans that shifted win probability by plus-25.6%, the single most impactful play of the game by that measure. Though Kyle Isbel had given Kansas City a brief foothold with a triple off José Berríos earlier in the sixth, a swing worth plus-11.9%, Toronto's offense answered emphatically. Kevin Kiermaier then extended the Blue Jays' lead in the bottom of the seventh with a home run off Taylor Clarke, a blow worth plus-18.0% in win probability, and Toronto tacked on two more runs in the eighth to close out the scoring at 5-2.
Among individual performers, Kirk finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-18.4% with a RE24 of plus-1.0, while Kiermaier contributed plus-14.6% WPA and Edward Olivares added plus-13.9% WPA despite a modest RE24 of plus-0.2. On the pitching side, Cole Ragans led all pitchers with a plus-10.7% WPA for Kansas City, a notable individual effort within a losing cause, followed by Génesis Cabrera at plus-7.7% for Toronto.