Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Baltimore Orioles 7-3 at Fenway Park on September 10, 2023, converting what the DiamondIQ model's estimate had as a 41 percent pre-game home win probability into a near-certainty by the middle innings. Baltimore committed three errors on the night against Boston's zero, and those defensive miscues proved costly in a game where the Red Sox scored in four separate innings to pull away comfortably.

The turning points arrived in clusters across the first half of the game. In the bottom of the third, a Trevor Story reached on a field error off Grayson Rodriguez, a play that swung win probability 16.9 percent in Boston's favor. An inning later, Reese McGuire added a triple off Rodriguez worth 14.4 percent, and a Luis Urías double extended the damage by another 7.3 percent, further burying the Orioles starter. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the sixth, when Triston Casas launched a home run off Cole Irvin that shifted win probability 24.4 percent toward Boston, effectively sealing the outcome.

Casas led all batters with a WPA of plus 18.7 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.3, while Rafael Devers contributed plus 15.5 percent WPA and McGuire added plus 14.2 percent. On the pitching side, the Red Sox bullpen locked things down, with Josh Winckowski leading the staff at plus 7.3 percent WPA, followed by Garrett Whitlock at plus 4.8 percent and Brayan Bello at plus 2.1 percent. Baltimore's Grayson Rodriguez was at the center of the damage, surrendering the bulk of the consequential plays across the middle innings.