Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Chicago Cubs 3-2 in ten innings at Wrigley Field on September 9, 2023, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected in full, swinging from a 55% pre-game home win probability for Chicago all the way to 0% by the final out. Arizona scratched out a run in the fifth on an Emmanuel Rivera single off Justin Steele, a play that carried a +10.5% win-probability swing, but the game remained tight through nine innings before extras settled the matter decisively. The D-backs broke through in the top of the tenth when Geraldo Perdomo laid down a sacrifice bunt off Daniel Palencia, a move that added 16.4% in win probability, and Tommy Pham followed with a single off Palencia that proved to be the night's most consequential offensive moment, swinging Arizona's chances by 33.1%. The two-run frame gave Arizona a 3-1 cushion heading into the bottom half.

Chicago managed to pull within one on a run in the bottom of the tenth, but Dansby Swanson's pop out to end the inning, with Paul Sewald on the mound, was the game's second-largest win-probability event at +27.0% in Arizona's favor, sealing the result. On the flip side, Gabriel Moreno's groundout in the top of the ninth off Adbert Alzolay had represented the D-backs' costliest at-bat, costing Arizona 16.8% in win probability at a moment when the game hung in the balance. Among batters, Swanson led all players with a +29.2% WPA despite ending the game as a Cubs out, a reflection of how deeply he was involved in the highest-leverage moments, while Perdomo finished at +21.7% and Pham at +21.1%. On the pitching side, Justin Steele led Cubs hurlers at +23.1% WPA, with Ryan Thompson adding +18.4%, though neither was ultimately enough to hold off Arizona in the extra frame.