Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins handed the Philadelphia Phillies a 3-2 defeat at Citizens Bank Park on September 8, 2023, erasing a 57 percent pre-game home win probability the DiamondIQ model had assigned to Philadelphia entering the night. The Marlins were held off the board through the first five innings before Jesús Sánchez broke the tie with a home run off Seranthony Domínguez in the sixth, a swing that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 23.6 percentage points in Miami's favor. Jacob Stallings extended the Marlins' lead to two with a home run off Matt Strahm in the seventh, adding another 15.6 percentage point swing toward Miami and putting the Phillies in a difficult position heading into the late innings.

Philadelphia's bullpen troubles proved critical, but so did Miami's relief work. Andrew Nardi was the game's most valuable pitcher by WPA at plus 29.7 percent, retiring the Phillies in key spots including a Nick Castellanos forceout in the seventh and limiting J.T. Realmuto to a flyout in the eighth, two plays that collectively drained 27.5 percentage points from Philadelphia's comeback chances. Cristopher Sánchez contributed another 20.4 percentage points of win probability on the mound, further anchoring the Marlins' pitching effort across the middle frames.

The game's single largest probability swing came in the bottom of the ninth, when Tanner Scott struck out Kyle Schwarber to end the game, a moment that added 31.6 percentage points to Miami's win probability in one swing and closed out the contest. Schwarber led all position players in WPA at plus 31.0 percent despite a minus 0.5 RE24, a reflection of how much his potential at-bat represented in a two-run, two-out situation. Bryce Harper posted a plus 19.4 percent WPA and plus 1.5 RE24 for Philadelphia, standing as the Phillies' most productive offensive contributor in a loss that left Citizens Bank Park with the DiamondIQ model's final estimate sitting at zero.