Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies handed the San Diego Padres a 5-1 defeat at Petco Park on September 6, 2023, handing the home team a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had pegged as a 45 percent probability to avoid before first pitch. The Phillies did their damage in bunches in the middle innings, plating one run in the first, two in the fourth, and two more in the fifth before the Padres managed a consolation run in the ninth. Philadelphia finished with 12 hits against just three for San Diego, and neither team committed an error.
The fourth and fifth innings were where the game effectively ended. In the top of the fourth against Michael Wacha, Bryce Harper delivered a double that swung win probability 17.4 points in Philadelphia's favor, the single largest swing of the game and the moment that tilted the contest decisively. Harper finished with a team-leading plus-15.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.4, making him the clear offensive catalyst. A lineout by Alec Bohm in the same inning cost the Phillies 4.4 points of win probability, a modest drag against an otherwise productive frame. In the fifth against Tim Hill, J.T. Realmuto connected on a home run worth plus-7.4 points of win probability, and a Jake Cave single added another 4.2 points. Xander Bogaerts grounded out in the home half of the fourth against Zack Wheeler, costing the Padres 3.7 points at a moment when a rally might have mattered.
Wheeler was the dominant force of the night on the mound, finishing with a plus-23.7 percent WPA that led all pitchers by a wide margin and underscored how thoroughly he suppressed a San Diego offense that produced only three hits. Seranthony Dominguez and Nick Martinez each contributed in relief, adding plus-1.7 and plus-1.6 points of win probability respectively to close things out. The DiamondIQ model's estimate placed San Diego's win probability at zero percent by game's end, a reflection of just how completely the Phillies controlled the contest from the fourth inning onward.