Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies erased a two-run deficit with a decisive seventh-inning burst to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers 4-2 at American Family Field on September 3, 2023. The DiamondIQ model had opened with a 55 percent pre-game win probability favoring Milwaukee, but that advantage was entirely extinguished by the end of the seventh as Philadelphia turned a one-run deficit into a two-run lead it would not relinquish.

The turning point arrived in the top of the seventh against Wade Miley, when J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm each launched home runs, both swings registering at plus-15.6 percent in win probability added per the DiamondIQ model's estimate. A Nick Castellanos double in the sixth had already begun shifting the momentum numerically, adding plus-12.6 percent, and a Trea Turner single off Abner Uribe later in the seventh pushed the advantage further at plus-13.1 percent. When Craig Kimbrel struck out Carlos Santana to close out the ninth, that final out itself carried a plus-12.0 percent win-probability impact, reflecting how live Milwaukee's threat remained until the end. Despite Miley and Milwaukee's bullpen limiting Philadelphia to six hits on the night, the Phillies' damage was concentrated and efficient.

Mark Canha led all batters with plus-22.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.5, the highest such contribution in the game, while Realmuto added plus-14.8 percent and Bohm contributed plus-11.8 percent. On the mound, José Alvarado was Philadelphia's most impactful reliever at plus-13.3 percent WPA, followed by Matt Strahm at plus-8.8 percent and Seranthony Domínguez at plus-5.3 percent, a trio that preserved the Phillies' late advantage through the final three frames.