MLB Recap · September 3, 2023

Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

BAL8
Final
AZ5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BAL2200040008140
AZ101020001591

The Story

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 8-5 at Chase Field on September 3, 2023, in a game that tilted decisively in the sixth inning after the DiamondIQ model had given Arizona a 42 percent chance of winning before first pitch. Baltimore plated four runs in the top of the sixth, and three doubles in that frame did most of the damage. Jordan Westburg's double off Kyle Nelson generated the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 14.9 percent, followed by Adley Rutschman's double off Ryan Thompson at plus 10.7 percent and Ryan O'Hearn's double off Zac Gallen at plus 8.3 percent. That three-hit barrage against three different Arizona relievers effectively broke the game open and left the Diamondbacks with no path back, as the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win fell to zero percent by the final out.

The Diamondbacks had their moments before the sixth inning unraveled things. Corbin Carroll's solo home run off Jack Flaherty in the bottom of the third, worth plus 9.4 percent in win probability, gave Arizona an early foothold, and Ketel Marte's single off Flaherty in the fifth added another plus 11.3 percent swing that briefly kept the home side within reach. Carroll finished as the game's top performer by WPA with a plus 24.9 percent total and a plus 1.5 RE24, making him the most impactful individual on either roster despite ending up on the losing side. Rutschman's plus 11.2 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24 made him Baltimore's standout offensive contributor, while Westburg's plus 14.5 percent WPA anchored the decisive sixth.

On the mound, Baltimore's bullpen secured the final margin without incident. Danny Coulombe was the top pitching performer by WPA at plus 8.4 percent, with Cionel Pérez adding plus 3.6 percent and Jorge López contributing plus 1.2 percent. Baltimore finished with 14 hits and committed no errors, while Arizona managed 9 hits and was charged with one error. The final score of 8-5 understated the lopsidedness of the game's closing stages, as the Orioles led by three runs through the final three innings and Arizona's lone ninth-inning run amounted to nothing more than cosmetic.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BAL bats firstFinalAZ win %BAL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 42.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jordan Westburg Double
Top 6th · off Kyle Nelson
+14.9%
Ketel Marte Single
Bot 5th · off Jack Flaherty
+11.3%
Adley Rutschman Double
Top 6th · off Ryan Thompson
+10.7%
Corbin Carroll Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Jack Flaherty
+9.4%
Ryan O'Hearn Double
Top 6th · off Zac Gallen
+8.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Corbin Carroll+24.9%+1.5 RE24
Jordan Westburg+14.5%+0.5 RE24
Adley Rutschman+11.2%+1.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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