Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Washington Nationals 6-4 at Nationals Park on September 3, 2023, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 48 percent pre-game home win probability all the way down to zero. Miami struck first and decisively in the opening inning, plating three runs to Washington's one, then watched the Nationals claw back with three runs of their own in the bottom of the fifth to briefly tighten the contest. The Marlins added a run in the sixth and two more in the ninth to ultimately pull away, finishing with a final margin of 6-4 on matching 10-hit outputs from each side.

The decisive swing of the game came in the top of the ninth, when Jazz Chisholm Jr. grounded into a forceout off Kyle Finnegan that shifted win probability by plus-26.1 percent in Miami's favor, the single largest play of the contest. Washington's best moments came in the fifth inning, where Dominic Smith's double off Sandy Alcantara added 15.3 percent to the Nationals' win chances and Lane Thomas followed with a single worth another 11.7 percent, briefly making it a competitive game. However, those rallies were offset by damaging outs, including a Jacob Young double play in the seventh and a Jake Alu groundout double play in the fourth, each costing Washington more than 11 percent in win probability against Alcantara.

Lane Thomas led all position players in win probability added at plus-22.6 percent with a plus-1.6 RE24, while Chisholm finished second among batters at plus-18.7 percent. On the pitching side, Sandy Alcantara paced Miami's staff with a plus-16.3 percent WPA contribution despite giving up the bulk of Washington's offense, and Hunter Harvey added plus-10.6 percent in relief. The model leans toward crediting Alcantara's ability to strand Washington threats, particularly those double-play sequences, as the structural backbone of Miami's victory.