MLB Recap · September 2, 2023

Seattle Mariners at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

SEA8
Final
NYM7

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SEA0120130018100
NYM0003030107131

The Story

The Seattle Mariners escaped Citi Field with an 8-7 victory over the New York Mets on September 2, 2023, in a game that swung dramatically in both directions before the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets win fell from a pre-game 43 percent all the way to zero. Seattle built a 3-0 lead through three innings before New York surged back, but the decisive blow came in the top of the ninth when J.P. Crawford connected on a solo home run off Adam Ottavino, a swing that shifted win probability by 34.2 percent and proved to be the margin of victory. Crawford finished as the game's most impactful batter at +39.8 percent WPA and +1.7 RE24, anchoring a Seattle comeback that required navigating three separate lead changes in the middle innings.

The Mets made the final moments uncomfortable after Jeff McNeil laced a triple off Tayler Saucedo in the bottom of the eighth, a hit that added 27.0 percent to New York's win probability and trimmed the deficit to one. New York had already received a jolt in the fourth when DJ Stewart hit a three-run home run off Luis Castillo worth +22.4 percent, and Francisco Lindor followed with another swing in the sixth off Gabe Speier that added 22.1 percent, each blow briefly putting the Mets in command. McNeil was New York's most valuable offensive contributor at +32.1 percent WPA despite the loss, while Francisco Alvarez posted the highest single WPA mark among Mets batters at +27.0 percent on a groundout that closed the gap in the ninth before Seattle's bullpen shut the door.

Justin Topa got the final out to strand the tying run, and the Mariners relievers were collectively sharp late. Matt Brash led all pitchers with +13.4 percent WPA, followed by Trevor Gott at +7.4 percent and Phil Bickford at +6.6 percent, a trio that held together a lead that never felt secure after Seattle's early cushion dissolved. The final line showed Seattle outhit New York ten to thirteen but committed zero errors against one for the Mets, a clean defensive night that complemented the timely offense when it mattered most.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SEA bats firstFinalNYM win %SEA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 42.6% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

J.P. Crawford Home Run
Top 9th · off Adam Ottavino
+34.2%
Jeff McNeil Triple
Bot 8th · off Tayler Saucedo
+27.0%
Francisco Alvarez Groundout
Bot 9th · off Justin Topa
+27.0%
DJ Stewart Home Run
Bot 4th · off Luis Castillo
+22.4%
Francisco Lindor Home Run
Bot 6th · off Gabe Speier
+22.1%

Top Batters by WPA

J.P. Crawford+39.8%+1.7 RE24
Jeff McNeil+32.1%+1.2 RE24
Francisco Alvarez+27.0%-0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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