Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Washington Nationals 8-5 on September 1, 2023, at Nationals Park in a game that extended into extra innings before Miami pulled away with a four-run eleventh. The DiamondIQ model opened with Washington holding a 49 percent home win probability, but the Nationals could not hold their late-game position, and that estimate fell to zero percent by the final out. After the teams traded runs through a tied tenth, the decisive damage came in the top of the eleventh when Miami pushed across four runs against Robert Garcia to secure the victory.

The single biggest swing of the night came in the bottom of the tenth, when Lane Thomas connected on a single off Tanner Scott that shifted win probability by 51.6 percent in Washington's favor, briefly making the Nationals the strong favorite heading into the eleventh. That momentum evaporated entirely when Jazz Chisholm Jr. answered with a single off Robert Garcia in the top of the eleventh, a hit worth 32.0 percent in win probability added back toward Miami. Xavier Edwards also delivered a critical blow in the top of the tenth, reaching on a fielder's choice off Kyle Finnegan for a 32.0 percent swing, while Garrett Hampson's grounded double play in the ninth had cost the Marlins 18.2 percent at a pivotal moment.

Thomas finished as the night's most impactful offensive player despite his team ultimately losing, posting a combined WPA of plus 63.9 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.3. Chisholm led all Marlins hitters with a RE24 of plus 2.4 and a WPA of plus 32.7 percent, while Edwards added plus 32.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.3. On the pitching side, George Soriano was the most valuable arm by WPA at plus 19.2 percent, followed by Hunter Harvey at plus 10.6 percent and Jordan Weems at plus 8.3 percent, as Miami's bullpen ultimately authored the winning margin.