Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays blanked the Miami Marlins 3-0 in ten innings on August 30, 2023, at loanDepot park, with all three runs coming in the final frame to complete a scoreless regulation. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Miami a 42% chance to win at home and closed at 0% after the Rays pushed across the only runs of the night. Through nine innings the two sides combined for just nine hits and no errors, with neither team able to break through despite several opportunities that swung the probability needle in both directions during the middle innings.
The decisive sequence unfolded in the top of the tenth against David Robertson. Jonathan Aranda delivered the key blow, a single that shifted win probability by 32.0 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. Randy Arozarena followed with another single off Robertson, adding 25.5 percentage points to Tampa Bay's probability of winning and pushing the lead to multiple runs. The Rays had also absorbed some damaging moments earlier, including Isaac Paredes grounding into a double play in the seventh against Tanner Scott, which cost the offense 14.0 percentage points, and Vidal Bruján flying out in the top of the seventh against Andrew Nardi at a cost of 12.3 percentage points. Jake Burger's groundout in the bottom of the ninth off Shawn Armstrong was the most favorable Marlins moment of the late innings, adding 11.0 percentage points to Miami's outlook before the Rays ultimately extinguished it.
On the mound, Jesús Luzardo led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 33.2%, anchoring Miami's effort deep into the game despite absorbing the loss, while Zach Eflin posted plus 24.8% WPA for Tampa Bay working through the middle innings. Tanner Scott contributed plus 27.5% WPA out of the Marlins bullpen. Among position players, Arozarena finished with a RE24 of plus 2.2 to go with his 32.0% WPA, making him the most impactful bat on the night by run-expectancy measure, while Aranda matched him at plus 32.0% WPA with a RE24 of plus 1.3. The model leans toward crediting the Rays' extra-inning execution as the clearest separation between the two sides in what was otherwise an evenly contested, low-scoring affair through nine frames.