San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the San Diego Padres 6-5 in ten innings on August 29, 2023, at Busch Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a dead-even 50 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Cardinals trailed entering the eighth inning but rallied to force and ultimately win extra innings behind a pair of pivotal swings from Willson Contreras, whose two home runs accounted for the largest individual win-probability contributions of the night.
The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the sixth, when Contreras connected off Seth Lugo for a home run worth plus 13.7 percent in win probability. His bigger blow came in the bottom of the eighth, a home run off Robert Suarez that swung the DiamondIQ model by plus 37.4 percent, the single largest play of the game, pulling St. Louis back into contention. The Cardinals then navigated their way through the ninth, where Masyn Winn's groundout off Nick Martinez registered plus 14.0 percent in win probability, a sign of how tightly the game remained contested. In the tenth, Richie Palacios executed a sacrifice bunt off Josh Hader worth plus 19.5 percent, and Tommy Edman followed with a walk-off single off Hader that added another plus 16.9 percent to seal the Cardinals' comeback.
Contreras finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, posting plus 54.0 percent total WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.9. Matthew Batten contributed a notable plus 28.8 percent WPA on San Diego's side despite the loss, and José Azócar added plus 17.8 percent WPA. Among Cardinals pitchers, Scott Barlow led the bullpen with plus 9.7 percent WPA, followed closely by JoJo Romero at plus 9.5 percent, as the St. Louis relief corps held together long enough for the offense to deliver the winning run.