Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros handed the Boston Red Sox a 6-2 defeat at Fenway Park on August 29, 2023, building their lead steadily across the middle innings and never surrendering it. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with Boston holding a 49 percent home win probability, but that figure eroded through a series of consequential plate appearances and closed at zero percent by the final out.

The decisive stretch came in the fifth and sixth innings. Alex Bregman's single off Brayan Bello in the top of the fifth shifted win probability 10.0 percent in Houston's favor, and Mauricio Dubón followed with the game's single most impactful swing in the top of the sixth, a double off John Schreiber that moved the needle 15.7 percent toward the Astros. Dubón finished as the game's top offensive performer by a clear margin, posting a combined WPA of plus 21.6 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.7. Bregman added a plus 9.8 percent WPA alongside a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Yordan Alvarez contributed the highest RE24 among Houston hitters at plus 2.1 with a WPA of plus 6.8 percent. Boston's most consequential positive moment came in the bottom of the sixth when Adam Duvall hit a home run off J.P. France for a plus 6.5 percent swing, but it proved insufficient to close the gap.

On the mound, J.P. France was the standout performer of the game regardless of side, accumulating a WPA of plus 18.9 percent for Houston despite surrendering the Duvall home run. Joe Jacques added plus 5.4 percent and Rafael Montero contributed plus 4.8 percent as the Astros bullpen secured the final frames. Boston's pitching staff could not match that collective efficiency, as Bello absorbed damage through the middle innings and Schreiber's sixth-inning appearance proved particularly costly against Dubón.