MLB Recap · August 28, 2023

Texas Rangers at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

TEX4
Final
NYM3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TEX0000010124100
NYM002010000340

The Story

The Texas Rangers took a hard-fought 4-3 decision over the New York Mets at Citi Field on August 28, 2023, completing a late comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had set at just 43 percent in favor of the home side before first pitch. New York held a lead through much of the contest, with Brandon Nimmo providing the game's earliest decisive blow in the third inning, a home run off Rangers starter Jon Gray that swung win probability 20.0 percent in the Mets' favor. The Mets added another run in the fifth to push their advantage to three, and Texas managed only a single tally in the sixth before the game reached the ninth inning with New York still in front.

The Rangers staged a stunning ninth-inning rally against reliever Trevor Gott that decided the contest. Nathaniel Lowe delivered the pivotal blow of the evening, a single that swung win probability 60.2 percent toward Texas and broke open what had been a tightly contested final frame. Ezequiel Duran followed with a double worth an additional 30.2 percent in win probability, extending the lead before a Marcus Semien strikeout briefly reversed the Rangers' momentum by 25.0 percent. Texas ultimately plated two runs in the inning to go ahead 4-3. José Leclerc closed out the Mets in the bottom of the ninth, with Omar Narváez's lineout to end the game representing a 27.0 percent swing in Texas's favor as New York's final threat evaporated.

Among individual performers, Lowe finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 51.0 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.5, his ninth-inning single serving as the turning point of the night. Corey Seager contributed a plus 20.1 percent WPA alongside a plus 1.2 RE24, reflecting his consistent offensive presence throughout the lineup. On the pitching side, Tylor Megill led all pitchers with a plus 22.0 percent WPA in a strong outing for New York, though ultimately insufficient to secure the win. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for the Mets, a reflection of just how completely the Rangers seized control over those final three outs.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TEX bats firstFinalNYM win %TEX win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 43% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Nathaniel Lowe Single
Top 9th · off Trevor Gott
+60.2%
Ezequiel Duran Double
Top 9th · off Trevor Gott
+30.2%
Omar Narváez Lineout
Bot 9th · off José Leclerc
+27.0%
Marcus Semien Strikeout
Top 9th · off Trevor Gott
-25.0%
Brandon Nimmo Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Jon Gray
+20.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Nathaniel Lowe+51.0%+0.5 RE24
Omar Narváez+29.9%-0.3 RE24
Corey Seager+20.1%+1.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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