Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Boston Red Sox 7-4 at Fenway Park on August 27, 2023, handing Boston a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming, as pregame home win probability sat at just 44 percent and collapsed to zero by the final out. Los Angeles spread 14 hits across the lineup and committed no errors, while Boston managed only 7 hits in a game that was effectively decided by a sequence of damaging extra-base hits against a Red Sox pitching staff that could not contain the Dodgers' lineup in the middle innings.

The decisive swings came in bunches. James Outman provided the game's first jolt with a fourth-inning home run off Tanner Houck, a play the DiamondIQ model valued at plus 11.3 percent in win probability. Freddie Freeman followed with a double off Chris Murphy in the fifth worth plus 6.6 percent, and then Mookie Betts delivered the single most impactful play of the contest in the top of the sixth, a home run off Murphy that swung win probability by plus 16.3 percent. Boston briefly responded in the bottom half when Triston Casas connected for a home run off Gavin Stone, a swing worth plus 13.7 percent for the Red Sox, but the Dodgers answered immediately, with Outman adding a single off Murphy in the seventh that carried an additional plus 9.1 percent shift.

By WPA, Outman was the game's most valuable offensive contributor at plus 15.6 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.7, followed by Betts at plus 11.3 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.2, the latter figure reflecting how consistently Betts delivered with runners on base. Casas led Boston with plus 8.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.3, though his effort was not enough to offset the cumulative damage done by the Dodger lineup. On the mound, Gavin Stone led all pitchers with plus 7.2 percent WPA despite surrendering the Casas home run, edging Houck's plus 6.8 percent and Ryan Brasier's plus 5.2 percent as the Dodgers' staff ultimately held firm through nine innings.