MLB Recap · July 5, 2023

Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

TEX2
Final
BOS4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TEX000002000291
BOS20001100-4100

The Story

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Texas Rangers 4-2 at Fenway Park on July 5, 2023, completing the game with all four of their runs coming before the seventh inning while holding Texas scoreless over the final three frames. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 46 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent by game's end, reflecting how thoroughly Boston controlled the late innings despite a Rangers surge in the sixth. Texas finished with nine hits and an error, while Boston collected ten hits without committing one.

The decisive sequence ran through the sixth inning in both directions. Adolis García delivered the most impactful single swing of the night, connecting for a home run off Brayan Bello that swung win probability 14.1 percent in Texas's favor, with Corey Seager's preceding double adding another 6.3 percent to set the table. However, Boston answered immediately in the bottom half when David Hamilton doubled off Jon Gray, a hit that shifted win probability 9.7 percent back toward the Red Sox and ultimately proved the pivotal counter-punch. Earlier in the game, the Rangers had repeatedly stalled against Bello, most notably when Marcus Semien grounded into a forceout in the second inning at a cost of 8.5 percent win probability and Nathaniel Lowe grounded into a double play in the third, costing Texas another 8.1 percent.

Brayan Bello was the night's standout performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, generating 20.8 percent in pitcher WPA despite surrendering the García home run, a testament to how effectively he neutralized the Rangers lineup throughout his outing. Adolis García led all batters at plus 15.2 percent WPA with a plus-0.5 RE24, though his contributions came too late and too isolated to overcome Boston's earlier cushion. Christian Arroyo and Masataka Yoshida were also consequential contributors for Boston, posting plus 11.6 and plus 10.5 percent WPA respectively, while Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen combined for 14.4 percent WPA out of the bullpen to close it out.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TEX bats firstFinalBOS win %TEX win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 45.9% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Adolis García Home Run
Top 6th · off Brayan Bello
+14.1%
David Hamilton Double
Bot 6th · off Jon Gray
+9.7%
Marcus Semien Forceout
Top 2nd · off Brayan Bello
-8.5%
Nathaniel Lowe Grounded Into DP
Top 3rd · off Brayan Bello
-8.1%
Corey Seager Double
Top 6th · off Brayan Bello
+6.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Adolis García+15.2%+0.5 RE24
Christian Arroyo+11.6%+0.3 RE24
Masataka Yoshida+10.5%+0.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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