Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| ATL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | 6 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves defeated the Miami Marlins 6-3 at Truist Park on July 2, 2023, a result that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 65% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. Atlanta built its lead in bursts, with the fifth and eighth innings doing the heaviest damage, while Miami was unable to sustain any meaningful rally against the Braves' bullpen arms.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the bottom of the fifth inning, where Ozzie Albies delivered a home run off Sandy Alcantara that shifted Atlanta's win probability by plus 21.1 percentage points, the single largest swing of the night. Ronald Acuña Jr. added to the damage in that same frame, drawing a walk off Alcantara that moved the needle another 13.0 percentage points. Orlando Arcia had already set the tone with a home run off Alcantara in the second inning worth plus 7.4 percentage points. Miami briefly applied pressure in the seventh when Luis Arraez singled off A.J. Minter for a plus 10.9 percentage point swing, but the deficit proved too deep. Travis d'Arnaud closed the door with a home run off Andrew Nardi in the eighth, a plus 15.5 percentage point blow that effectively ended any Marlins hope.
Among individual performers, Arraez finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 14.1 with a RE24 of plus 1.6, providing Miami's most productive contribution, while Albies and d'Arnaud anchored the Atlanta offense at plus 13.8 and plus 11.8 WPA respectively. On the pitching side, Ben Heller led all pitchers with a plus 11.6 WPA, followed by Dylan Floro at plus 5.4 and Spencer Strider at plus 4.8, as Atlanta's staff ultimately kept the Marlins' eight hits from translating into enough runs to threaten.