Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Chicago Cubs 8-6 on July 2, 2023, at Wrigley Field, completing a comeback that required extra innings to settle. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Chicago holding a 51 percent home win probability, but a dramatic late sequence and a decisive tenth inning pushed that figure to zero by the final out.

The game's single most consequential play came in the bottom of the ninth, when Cody Bellinger delivered a sacrifice fly off Emmanuel Clase that swung win probability by 42.6 percentage points in the Cubs' favor, pulling Chicago within range and threatening to close out a Cleveland lead built largely on a three-run fifth. That rally, combined with Andrés Giménez's third-inning home run off Jameson Taillon that shifted win probability 18.1 points toward Cleveland, had been the foundation of the Guardians' advantage throughout the middle innings. Bellinger finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-37.6 percent despite the loss, a reflection of how much his ninth-inning plate appearance reshaped the contest.

Cleveland answered in the tenth, however, with Amed Rosario and Josh Naylor delivering back-to-back singles off Adbert Alzolay that added 32.0 and 29.6 percentage points of win probability respectively, pushing the Guardians ahead for good. Rosario finished with a plus-35.3 percent WPA and 1.5 RE24, while Naylor posted plus-33.0 percent WPA and a game-high 2.2 RE24 among position players. On the mound, Aaron Civale led Cleveland's staff with a plus-17.6 percent WPA contribution, and a Yan Gomes groundout in the bottom of the tenth added a quiet but meaningful 14.4 points as Cleveland closed out the series victory.