Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies dismantled the Washington Nationals 19-4 on July 1, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park in a game that was largely decided by the third inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Philadelphia a 67% win probability, and that figure climbed steadily toward its eventual 100% finish as the Phillies piled up six runs in the third and four more in the fourth.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the third, where three plate appearances swung the game's win probability by a combined 24.2 percentage points. Alec Bohm's home run off MacKenzie Gore was the single most impactful play of the game, adding 11.5% to Philadelphia's win probability, and Josh Harrison followed with a sacrifice fly worth another 7.4%. A Trea Turner walk in that same frame contributed an additional 5.3%. Washington had briefly generated some momentum in the top of the second when Dominic Smith hit a home run off Zack Wheeler to account for a 5.0% swing, but Cristian Pache's pop out to close Philadelphia's half of that inning immediately reversed the Nationals' fortunes by the same margin.

Bohm finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, leading all batters with a 12.5% WPA and a RE24 of plus-4.5. Harrison ranked second at plus-8.8% WPA, and Bryce Harper added plus-7.3% WPA with a RE24 of plus-1.8. Philadelphia's offense accumulated 18 hits and 19 runs without committing an error, while Washington managed 10 hits but could not convert them against a Phillies club that had largely put the game away before the midpoint.