Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks held off the Los Angeles Angels 3-1 at Angel Stadium on July 1, 2023, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked all the way to a 0% win probability by game's end, down from a 46% pre-game figure. The Angels managed just three hits and were done in by a combination of their own mistakes and Arizona's timely hitting across the middle innings.

The game's most consequential moment came in the top of the sixth, when a fielding error — charged on Sam Bachman — allowed Ketel Marte to reach base and swung win probability 17.5 percentage points in Arizona's favor, representing the single largest shift of the night. The Diamondbacks built on that opening in the seventh, when Jake McCarthy laced a triple off Chris Devenski that shifted the needle another 16.4 points and effectively put the game away. The Angels' lone answer came in the bottom of the fourth, when Anthony Rendon's home run off Ryne Nelson moved Los Angeles 12.1 percentage points closer to a win — the only inning in which they scored.

Arizona's pitching staff was the backbone of the victory. Ryne Nelson led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 28.7%, absorbing Rendon's solo shot but otherwise keeping the Angels quiet, while Tyler Anderson contributed plus 24.3% WPA in relief despite a difficult fifth inning that saw Lourdes Gurriel Jr. strikeout cost Arizona 9.5 points before Kyle Lewis's single recaptured 8.7 points. Andrew Chafin added plus 7.8% WPA in a clean late appearance. At the plate, Marte and Lewis paced the offense with WPA figures of plus 16.4% and plus 13.3% respectively, with Gabriel Moreno contributing plus 10.7% on a plus 1.0 RE24 performance that reflected sustained pressure rather than a single decisive swing.