MLB Recap · June 30, 2023

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

WSH2
Final
PHI1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
WSH020000000280
PHI010000000181

The Story

The Washington Nationals held on to beat the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 at Citizens Bank Park on June 30, 2023, handing the home team a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 66 percent win probability in Philadelphia's favor. All of the scoring came in the second inning, when the Nationals pushed across two runs against a single Phillies run, and neither team was able to change the scoreboard over the final seven innings. The Phillies finished with an error on the night, while Washington went clean defensively, and both clubs collected eight hits.

The decisive moments came late, with the game's two largest win-probability swings occurring in the ninth inning. Hunter Harvey induced a strikeout of Brandon Marsh to close out the game, a play that registered a win-probability swing of plus-31.6 percent in Washington's favor, sealing the result and dropping Philadelphia's DiamondIQ model estimate to zero. The Phillies had also been hurt in the eighth, when J.T. Realmuto grounded into a forceout off Kyle Finnegan, a play that swung win probability 16.5 percent against Philadelphia. Alec Bohm had briefly kept Philadelphia's hopes alive with a double off Mason Thompson in the seventh that shifted win probability 10.6 percent in the Phillies' direction, but it ultimately went for nothing.

On the pitching side, Josiah Gray was the standout performer of the night, posting a WPA of plus-34.5 percent to lead all pitchers, with Finnegan contributing plus-29.7 percent out of the bullpen before Harvey closed it out. Philadelphia's Matt Strahm added a plus-7.4 percent WPA effort in a losing cause. Among position players, Marsh led all batters with a plus-18.5 percent WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-1.1, while Stone Garrett contributed a plus-9.7 percent WPA alongside a plus-1.9 RE24 for Washington. Bohm was Philadelphia's most impactful bat at plus-7.7 percent WPA and a plus-1.2 RE24, though the Phillies could not generate the timely hitting needed to overcome the early deficit.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025WSH bats firstFinalPHI win %WSH win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 65.9% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Brandon Marsh Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Hunter Harvey
+31.6%
J.T. Realmuto Forceout
Bot 8th · off Kyle Finnegan
-16.5%
Alec Bohm Double
Bot 7th · off Mason Thompson
+10.6%
J.T. Realmuto Pop Out
Bot 6th · off Josiah Gray
-8.9%
Bryson Stott Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Hunter Harvey
-8.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Brandon Marsh+18.5%-1.1 RE24
Stone Garrett+9.7%+1.9 RE24
Alec Bohm+7.7%+1.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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