Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays erased a two-run deficit with three runs in the top of the ninth inning to defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks 3-2 at Chase Field on June 28, 2023. Through eight innings, Arizona held a 2-1 lead and appeared in control, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home victory sitting comfortably above even. The Rays manufactured nothing across the middle frames, managing just six hits on the night, but their entire offensive contribution came at the most consequential moment possible.

The decisive sequence in the ninth unfolded against Scott McGough and centered almost entirely on Josh Lowe. Lowe's two-run double was the single most impactful play of the game by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, swinging win probability by 70.0 percentage points in Tampa Bay's favor and erasing the deficit in one stroke. The rally was not clean — Randy Arozarena's strikeout and Isaac Paredes's lineout cost the Rays 13.8 and 10.9 percentage points respectively — but Luke Raley followed with a single that added another 20.4 points, ultimately providing the go-ahead margin. In the bottom of the ninth, Pete Fairbanks induced a lineout from Alek Thomas that, despite registering a 27.0-point swing in Arizona's favor by the model's estimate, proved too late to alter the outcome.

Lowe finished as the game's most valuable offensive contributor at plus-64.8 WPA and plus-1.2 RE24, embodying the entire Rays comeback in a single at-bat. On the pitching side, Zach Davies led all pitchers with plus-37.2 WPA, a testament to Arizona's starting performance that kept Tampa Bay scoreless through eight. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 47 percent home win probability and closed it at zero, a reflection of how thoroughly the Rays ninth-inning burst overwhelmed what had been a competitive contest throughout.