Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 9-8 on June 28, 2023, at Coors Field in a game defined by dramatic momentum swings. The DiamondIQ model entered the day estimating a 37 percent win probability for Colorado, but by game's end that figure had climbed to 100 percent as the Rockies overcame a significant deficit to take the series win.

The decisive turning points came in two distinct bursts. In the top of the fourth inning, Mookie Betts delivered the game's single biggest play, a home run off Kyle Freeland that shifted win probability by plus 31.8 percent in Los Angeles's favor, and a Yonny Hernández single off the same pitcher added another 13.9 percent swing, fueling the Dodgers' six-run fourth. That frame appeared to put Los Angeles firmly in control. However, the Rockies answered with a five-run sixth inning that unraveled the Dodger bullpen. Ezequiel Tovar's double off Nick Robertson generated a 23.8 percent win-probability swing, a Jurickson Profar walk added 13.0 percent, and Jorge Alfaro followed with a double off Victor González worth another 12.1 percent, collectively erasing Los Angeles's lead and flipping the game's complexion entirely.

Betts finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 37.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 3.5, though his efforts were ultimately insufficient. Tovar was the standout on Colorado's side at plus 18.3 percent WPA, while Randal Grichuk contributed plus 13.2 percent WPA in support. On the mound, Justin Lawrence led all pitchers with a plus 10.4 percent WPA contribution, and Pierce Johnson and Jake Bird added plus 5.0 and plus 4.4 percent respectively as the Rockies' bullpen held the final 9-8 margin.