MLB Recap · June 25, 2023

Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

LAA3
Final
COL4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAA000002001381
COL10011010-451

The Story

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Los Angeles Angels 4-3 at Coors Field on June 25, 2023, in a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with the home side holding just a 40 percent pre-game win probability before closing at 100 percent by the final out. Colorado built its lead incrementally, scoring in the first, fourth, fifth, and seventh innings against an Angels pitching staff that largely kept the Rockies in check statistically, surrendering only five hits on the night. Los Angeles managed eight hits of its own but struggled to convert, and a pair of costly groundball outs in the ninth inning sealed their fate.

The game's most consequential stretch came in the sixth and seventh innings, where the win-probability needle swung sharply in both directions. Shohei Ohtani delivered a triple off Austin Gomber in the top of the sixth, a hit that added 13.6 percent to the Angels' win probability and briefly made the contest feel competitive. However, Ezequiel Tovar answered in the bottom of the seventh with a single off José Soriano that added 13.3 percent to Colorado's chances, a blow that proved decisive in restoring the Rockies' cushion. The Angels mounted a final threat in the ninth, but Luis Rengifo's groundout off Justin Lawrence cost Los Angeles 13.5 percent in win probability, and Hunter Renfroe subsequently grounded into a double play that erased another 12.4 percent, effectively ending the rally.

Tovar was the game's standout performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-20.0 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.6, making him the clear difference-maker on the evening. Ohtani led the Angels with a WPA of plus-9.9 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.0, though his individual contributions were ultimately insufficient given the team's late-inning failures. On the mound, Jake Bird paced Colorado's relievers with a WPA of plus-11.5 percent, followed by Pierce Johnson at plus-8.5 percent and Daniel Bard at plus-8.1 percent, as the Rockies bullpen successfully protected a one-run advantage through the final frames.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAA bats firstFinalCOL win %LAA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 39.6% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Shohei Ohtani Triple
Top 6th · off Austin Gomber
+13.6%
Luis Rengifo Groundout
Top 9th · off Justin Lawrence
-13.5%
Ezequiel Tovar Single
Bot 7th · off José Soriano
+13.3%
Hunter Renfroe Grounded Into DP
Top 9th · off Justin Lawrence
-12.4%
Mickey Moniak Grounded Into DP
Top 2nd · off Austin Gomber
-9.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Ezequiel Tovar+20.0%+1.6 RE24
Shohei Ohtani+9.9%+1.0 RE24
Jorge Alfaro+4.8%+0.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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