Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals shut out the San Diego Padres 2-0 at Petco Park on June 24, 2023, completing a game the DiamondIQ model had assigned a 64 percent pre-game win probability to the home side, only for that estimate to reach zero by the final out. Josiah Gray was the central figure, generating a team-high 34.3 percent in win probability added from the mound as he kept the Padres offense in check through the heart of their lineup. His performance was most apparent in the first two innings, where he induced a strikeout from Xander Bogaerts worth 6.7 percent and a lineout from Trent Grisham worth 7.8 percent in win-probability swing, each preventing San Diego from building on its early-game advantage.

The pivotal offensive moment came in the third inning when Lane Thomas connected on a home run off Matt Waldron, shifting win probability 10.2 percent in Washington's favor and giving the Nationals a 2-0 lead they would never relinquish. Thomas finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-12.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.1. On the San Diego side, Gary Sánchez provided one of the few genuine threats, but his strikeout double play off Mason Thompson in the sixth inning swung win probability 8.0 percent against the Padres, effectively extinguishing a late-game opportunity. Thompson and Kyle Finnegan combined for 30.1 percent in win-probability added out of the bullpen, securing the final innings of a clean Washington effort that finished with no errors on either side.