Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 4-2 on June 24, 2023, at Progressive Field, pulling away in the middle innings after the teams traded early runs. Cleveland entered the day with a 51 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model, and that figure climbed to 100 percent by the final out, with the decisive damage concentrated in the bottom of the sixth inning.

The game's most consequential sequence arrived in that sixth, where Cleveland turned a tight contest into a comfortable lead. David Fry delivered a single off Elvis Peguero that swung win probability 14.6 percent in Cleveland's favor, the largest single-play shift of the game, and Josh Naylor followed with a single off Hoby Milner worth an additional 13.9 percent. Those two blows accounted for the two-run frame that effectively settled the outcome. Naylor had been a mixed presence on the night, as his groundout into a double play in the bottom of the fourth represented the game's third-largest swing, costing Cleveland 10.1 percent in win probability off Freddy Peralta. Milwaukee's best offensive moment came in the top of the third, when William Contreras singled off Tanner Bibee for a 9.7 percent gain, pushing the Brewers to a 2-0 lead that briefly made them the more likely winner.

Among position players, Amed Rosario led all batters with a WPA of plus-13.3 and an RE24 of plus-0.9, while José Ramírez contributed plus-10.6 WPA and the game's best RE24 among hitters at plus-1.1. Fry finished at plus-9.4 WPA despite the costly fourth-inning strikeout, as his sixth-inning single more than offset that earlier damage. On the mound, Trevor Stephan was Cleveland's most valuable arm at plus-10.8 WPA, with Tanner Bibee adding plus-9.0 despite surrendering Milwaukee's early runs. Freddy Peralta posted plus-8.7 WPA for Milwaukee in a losing effort, benefiting from the double-play groundout that temporarily steadied the Brewers' position.