Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| LAD | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - | 8 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Houston Astros 8-7 on June 24, 2023, at Dodger Stadium in a game that swung dramatically before the Dodgers ultimately secured the win. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving the Dodgers a 57% pre-game win probability, a figure that collapsed midway through before recovering fully to 100% by the final out.
The pivotal sequence unfolded across two contrasting innings. Houston seized control in the top of the fifth when Alex Bregman launched a home run off Bobby Miller, the single biggest momentum shift of the night in the Astros' favor, swinging win probability 29.5 points toward Houston. The Astros pushed five runs across in that frame and added another in the sixth to build a lead that appeared daunting against the backdrop of Los Angeles's modest five-hit total. But the Dodgers answered in the seventh when David Peralta connected for a home run off Phil Maton, a swing worth plus-14.5% in win probability, trimming the deficit and setting the stage for a decisive eighth. That inning belonged to James Outman, whose double off Bryan Abreu shifted win probability by plus-34.4 points, the largest single-play swing in the DiamondIQ model's estimate for the entire game. A walk drawn by Miguel Rojas off Ryne Stanek added another plus-17.8 points as the Dodgers plated three runs in the eighth to take the lead for good.
Outman finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-34.8% with a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Bregman led all hitters in RE24 at plus-3.0 to go with a plus-31.3% WPA despite being on the losing side. Kyle Tucker contributed a plus-15.4% WPA for Houston in a losing effort. On the mound, Evan Phillips closed it out for Los Angeles with a plus-15.2% WPA, preserving the victory after José Abreu grounded into a double play in the ninth that cost Houston minus-22.8 points of win probability and ended any remaining threat. Yency Almonte added plus-10.0% in relief support as the Dodgers bullpen ultimately proved the difference.