Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Los Angeles Angels 7-4 at Coors Field on June 23, 2023, handing the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 39 percent home win probability a decisive validation by game's end, with that figure reaching 100 percent. The Angels had clawed their way to a 4-2 lead through five innings on the strength of back-to-back home runs in the top of the fifth, as Shohei Ohtani connected off Kyle Freeland for a swing worth plus-12.3 percent in win probability, followed immediately by Mike Trout's solo shot off the same pitcher at plus-11.2 percent. Colorado answered with a Coco Montes double off Patrick Sandoval in the bottom of the sixth, a play that moved the needle plus-15.0 percent in Colorado's favor, trimming the deficit and setting the stage for what followed.

The game turned decisively in the bottom of the eighth, when Elias Díaz launched a home run off Chris Devenski that registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus-44.6 percent, blowing the game open in Colorado's favor. Díaz finished as the top performer by both WPA and RE24, posting marks of plus-33.9 percent and plus-2.5 respectively. Montes was nearly as impactful, finishing at plus-19.8 percent WPA and plus-2.0 RE24 to rank second among position players. On the mound, the Colorado bullpen closed efficiently, with Jacob Webb leading pitchers at plus-14.9 percent WPA, aided in part by stranding a threat in the sixth when Ryan McMahon's strikeout cost the Angels minus-11.1 percent in win probability. Pierce Johnson and Daniel Bard added plus-7.4 and plus-6.6 percent respectively as the Rockies completed the four-run eighth and held on through nine innings despite committing three errors on the evening.