MLB Recap · June 17, 2023

Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

TB0
Final
SD2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TB000000000031
SD00002000-240

The Story

The San Diego Padres shut out the Tampa Bay Rays 2-0 on June 17, 2023, at Petco Park, with all the scoring coming in the bottom of the fifth inning. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had San Diego entering with just a 33 percent chance of winning, but by game's end that figure had climbed to 100 percent as the Padres held Tampa Bay to three hits and committed no errors while the Rays allowed one of their own.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the fifth, where Manny Machado's single off Zach Eflin registered as the game's most consequential offensive play, shifting win probability by plus 12.6 percent in San Diego's favor. On the other side of the ledger, Tampa Bay repeatedly failed to generate early momentum, with Harold Ramírez striking out in the first and fifth innings for combined swings of minus 11.7 percent in win probability, and Manuel Margot's groundout in the second and strikeout in the fourth costing the Rays another minus 11.7 percent in combined probability. Those missed opportunities left Tampa Bay scoreless across nine innings.

Blake Snell was the game's dominant individual performer, leading all pitchers with a plus 37.0 percent win-probability contribution as he stifled the Rays' offense throughout his outing. Nick Martinez added plus 8.1 percent and Steven Wilson contributed plus 7.2 percent in relief to complete the shutdown. Machado finished as the top offensive contributor with a plus 13.9 percent WPA and plus 0.7 RE24, while Trent Grisham added plus 4.7 percent WPA to round out a balanced effort from the Padres.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TB bats firstFinalSD win %TB win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 33.3% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Manny Machado Single
Bot 5th · off Zach Eflin
+12.6%
Manuel Margot Groundout
Top 2nd · off Blake Snell
-6.6%
Harold Ramírez Strikeout
Top 5th · off Blake Snell
-6.3%
Harold Ramírez Strikeout
Top 1st · off Blake Snell
-5.4%
Manuel Margot Strikeout
Top 4th · off Blake Snell
-5.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Manny Machado+13.9%+0.7 RE24
Trent Grisham+4.7%-0.1 RE24
Yandy Díaz+2.8%+0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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