Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Baltimore Orioles 3-2 at Wrigley Field on June 17, 2023, handing Baltimore a close loss in a game that stayed tight through eight innings before the Cubs held on for the final out. Chicago entered with a 40 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, but that figure climbed to 100 percent by game's end, reflecting how the Cubs managed to protect an early lead despite Baltimore's best efforts to erase it.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the third, when Nico Hoerner delivered a double off Kyle Gibson that shifted the Cubs' win probability by plus-17.7 percent, providing the early offensive foundation for Chicago's two-run frame. Baltimore answered in the top of the fifth, most notably when Adley Rutschman launched a home run off Justin Steele for a plus-21.6 percent swing — the single largest win-probability play of the game — cutting the Cubs' lead and briefly tilting the contest back toward Baltimore. Yan Gomes responded with a double off Gibson in the bottom half of that inning for a plus-7.4 percent gain, helping Chicago push back. Baltimore's best opportunity to complete a comeback stalled in the seventh, when Anthony Santander struck out and Gunnar Henderson grounded out against Mark Leiter Jr., costing the Orioles a combined 15.6 percent in win probability and effectively closing the door.

Hoerner led all players with a plus-20.4 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, while Rutschman matched him with plus-20.2 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24 despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Leiter Jr. was Chicago's most impactful reliever at plus-19.3 percent WPA, followed by Adbert Alzolay at plus-15.2 percent, as the Cubs bullpen successfully defended what the rotation had built.