Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins defeated the Washington Nationals 5-2 at Nationals Park on June 17, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate foreshadowed after opening with Washington holding just a 37% pre-game win probability. Miami built its advantage methodically, adding a run in the second, absorbing a Nationals answer in the fourth, and then breaking the game open with a two-run seventh before tacking on two more in the ninth. Washington finished with eight hits and an error, but struggled to convert its opportunities into runs in the moments that mattered most.
The decisive sequence came in the seventh inning, where Jorge Soler drew a walk off Chad Kuhl that shifted win probability by 12.0 percentage points in Miami's favor. Soler finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA at plus-17.8 and a RE24 of plus-2.4, reflecting the outsized run-value impact of his plate appearances throughout the night. Jonathan Davis added plus-10.0 WPA in support. Washington's most significant counter-punch came in the bottom of the eighth, when Lane Thomas delivered a double off Tanner Scott worth plus-12.4 percentage points, followed by a Luis García Jr. single that added another 13.0 points and briefly tightened the contest. However, Jeimer Candelario grounded into a double play in the same frame, a swing of minus-17.0 percentage points that effectively ended the Nationals' chances, and Joey Meneses followed with a strikeout at minus-12.9 points.
On the mound, starter Jake Irvin was Washington's bright spot, generating plus-20.0 WPA across his outing, but the bullpen could not sustain it. For Miami, Braxton Garrett posted plus-13.7 WPA and Jordan Weems added plus-7.1, as the Marlins' pitching staff collectively held Washington in check through the late innings to secure the win.