Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins held off the Washington Nationals 6-5 at Nationals Park on June 16, 2023, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had assessed as increasingly likely as the game wore on. Washington entered with a 38% pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, and that number collapsed entirely by the final out. Miami scored two runs in each of the first two innings to build a 4-2 lead, only to see Washington claw back with two runs in the fourth and one in the third, keeping the game tight through the middle frames.

The decisive swings came in the final two innings. Garrett Cooper's single off Carl Edwards Jr. in the top of the eighth was the game's second-largest play by win-probability impact, pushing Miami's chances up by 20.2 percentage points and restoring a lead the Marlins would not relinquish. Washington's best answer in the bottom half came undone when Victor Robles struck out against Tanner Scott, a moment that cost the Nationals 12.9 percentage points of win probability and effectively ended their most dangerous threat of the inning. In the bottom of the ninth, Jeimer Candelario's forceout off A.J. Puk swung win probability by 27.0 points in Miami's favor, sealing the outcome.

Candelario finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-35.6%, paired with a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Luis Arraez contributed plus-27.4% WPA and led all batters with a RE24 of plus-4.0, his fourth-inning single off Trevor Williams adding 10.2 percentage points to Miami's outlook. Cooper's plus-20.2% WPA rounded out the offensive standouts. On the pitching side, Tanner Scott led Miami's bullpen at plus-23.3% WPA, followed by Andrew Nardi at plus-17.9% and Jordan Weems at plus-13.8%, a trio that collectively preserved the one-run margin through Washington's late pressure.