Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies held on to defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-4 at Chase Field on June 15, 2023, completing a comeback that erased what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 63 percent pre-game home win probability for Arizona. Philadelphia scored all five of its runs in the second, third, and fourth innings, while the Diamondbacks mounted a surge of their own in the third before the Phillies bullpen ultimately slammed the door.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the bottom of the third, when Ketel Marte launched a home run off Aaron Nola that swung win probability 20.5 points in Arizona's favor, helping the Diamondbacks plate four runs in the inning and briefly seize control of the game. Philadelphia answered in the top of the fourth on a Kyle Schwarber double off Ryne Nelson, a hit that shifted win probability 13.7 points toward the Phillies and helped produce a two-run frame that proved to be the final margin. From there, the Phillies bullpen took over, with Seranthony Domínguez delivering a pivotal strikeout of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the eighth that swung win probability 16.5 points toward Philadelphia, followed by Gregory Soto punching out Emmanuel Rivera in the seventh for a 9.7-point swing.

The game's defining moment, however, came in the ninth, when Gabriel Moreno grounded out against Craig Kimbrel to end Arizona's last threat, a play that represented a 31.6-point win-probability swing and sealed the Phillies victory. Moreno finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-38.6 percent despite ending on the wrong side of the final out, reflecting how many high-leverage situations he had reached throughout the night. Marte posted the strongest run-expectancy figure among position players at plus-1.9 RE24, while Domínguez led all pitchers with a plus-24.2 WPA, underscoring the bullpen's decisive role in preserving the one-run win.