Washington Nationals at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros held off the Washington Nationals 5-4 on June 14, 2023, at Minute Maid Park in a game that remained tightly contested into the final inning before Houston secured the win. The DiamondIQ model entered the night with a 71% home win probability, and while that edge appeared comfortable through eight innings, a dramatic ninth nearly erased it entirely before the Astros closed things out.

The game's most significant single play came in the top of the ninth, when Dominic Smith ripped a triple off Ryan Pressly that swung win probability by plus-51.9 percentage points in Washington's favor, representing the largest WPA shift of the night. Smith finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-52.4, with a RE24 of plus-1.6, and his hit transformed what looked like a routine Astros victory into a genuine crisis. However, Luis García Jr. followed with a groundout that cost Washington 18.8 percentage points of win probability, and CJ Abrams added another damaging groundout at minus-12.8, leaving the Nationals unable to complete the comeback. Houston answered in the bottom of the ninth on a Jake Meyers forceout and a Corey Julks walk off Hunter Harvey, which added plus-15.9 and plus-13.5 percentage points respectively to push the DiamondIQ model's estimate to 100%.

On the pitching side, Framber Valdez was Houston's most valuable arm by WPA at plus-17.5, helping preserve the Astros' lead through much of the contest. José Abreu contributed the most productive offensive performance by RE24 at plus-2.9, finishing with a WPA of plus-22.2. Houston built its cushion on a two-run first inning and a two-run fourth before Washington mounted its late charge, ultimately falling short despite cutting into a multi-run deficit in the ninth.