Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics: Final Score & Recap

The Oakland Athletics defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 2-1 at the Oakland Coliseum on June 13, 2023, in a low-scoring game that unfolded almost entirely in the final three innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Oakland just a 17% chance of winning before first pitch, a figure that climbed steadily to 100% as the A's manufactured both of their runs late against a Tampa Bay staff that had otherwise suppressed Oakland's offense through the first six innings.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the seventh, when Brent Rooker doubled off Robert Stephenson, a hit that shifted Oakland's win probability by plus 19.9 percentage points and represented the single largest swing of the game. Oakland added an insurance run in the bottom of the eighth on a Carlos Pérez groundout off Colin Poche, a play that added another 11.9 points to Oakland's win probability. Tampa Bay's best opportunity to respond came in the top of the eighth, when Manuel Margot doubled off Hogan Harris for a plus 11.2-point swing, but the Rays ultimately plated only one run on the night. A costly Yandy Díaz pop out in that same frame cost Tampa Bay 11.5 percentage points of win probability and effectively ended their comeback bid.

Hogan Harris was the game's most impactful individual performer, accumulating plus 39.4% in pitching WPA across his outing. On the offensive side, Margot led Tampa Bay with plus 15.4% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Rooker paced Oakland at plus 14.8% WPA and plus 0.9 RE24, with Pérez adding plus 11.9% WPA. The model leans toward crediting Oakland's late-inning construction of runs and Harris's performance as the central factors in a result that the pre-game numbers had rated as a significant long shot.