Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
| CLE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Houston Astros defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6-4 on June 10, 2023, at Progressive Field, handing Cleveland a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the home side a 44% chance to win. Houston built its advantage with a three-run first inning and added two more in the fourth, while Cleveland chipped away but could never fully close the gap, finishing with a final win probability of 0% as the Astros held on through nine innings.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the seventh inning, where a Josh Naylor single off Bryan Abreu shifted win probability 12.4 points in Cleveland's favor, briefly threatening to make things uncomfortable for Houston. However, a Josh Bell strikeout, also against Abreu, swung the needle back 11.0 points toward the Astros and effectively neutralized the rally. In the fourth inning, Jake Meyers had delivered a double off Triston McKenzie that added 10.0 points to Houston's win probability, proving to be one of the more structurally important offensive moments of the game. Cleveland's best chance to generate early momentum was erased in the third, when José Ramírez grounded into a double play against J.P. France, costing the Guardians 8.6 points of win probability at a moment when the game remained very much in the balance.
Among position players, Amed Rosario led all batters with a WPA of plus 15.5 and an RE24 of plus 1.9, while Will Brennan posted a plus 14.6 WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus 0.2, including a strikeout in the ninth that the DiamondIQ model credited as a 12.0-point swing favoring Houston. Jake Meyers contributed a plus 8.5 WPA and plus 1.1 RE24. On the mound, J.P. France was the dominant pitching story, finishing with a WPA of plus 25.2, the highest of any player in the game, anchoring a staff that also received contributions from Bryan Abreu at plus 5.0 and Enyel De Los Santos at plus 1.4.