Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Angels defeated the Seattle Mariners 5-4 on June 9, 2023, at Angel Stadium, completing a game the DiamondIQ model entered favoring the home side at 59% and closed at a certainty. The Angels built their winning margin through a pair of home runs against Seattle starter Luis Castillo, and their bullpen held firm when the Mariners made a late push to pull within reach.

The two most decisive swings of the game came off Castillo's arm. In the bottom of the third, Shohei Ohtani connected for a home run that shifted win probability 20.3 points in the Angels' favor. Then in the bottom of the sixth, Mickey Moniak added another solo shot that moved the needle a further 26.2 points, representing the single biggest play of the evening. Seattle briefly applied pressure in the top of the fifth, when a Ty France single off Ohtani moved the win-probability needle 12.7 points toward the Mariners, but Jarred Kelenic grounded into a double play on the very next meaningful sequence, erasing 12.2 points of that gain and effectively snuffing the rally. Julio Rodriguez's strikeout against Carlos Estévez to close the top of the ninth, costing Seattle 10.9 points of win probability, sealed the result.

Ohtani was the game's most valuable contributor by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-23.9 and an RE24 of plus-2.2, accounting for his offensive home run and his work on the mound limiting Seattle's scoring opportunities. Moniak added plus-13.1 WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, while Jose Caballero contributed plus-11.3 WPA on the offensive side. Among pitchers, Jacob Webb led the bullpen with plus-19.3 WPA, followed by Sam Bachman at plus-8.1 and Estévez at plus-6.3, as the Angels' relief corps protected the one-run lead through the final innings.