Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies edged the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-4 on June 9, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park in a game that ended on one of the most impactful swings of the evening. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 47 percent pre-game home win probability for Philadelphia, and by the final pitch that figure had reached 100 percent, driven almost entirely by a walk-off home run from Kyle Schwarber off Caleb Ferguson in the bottom of the ninth. That single at-bat shifted win probability by 45.9 points, the largest single-play swing of the game, and represented the culmination of a contest that had tilted dramatically in both directions over its final three innings.
Los Angeles had seized control in the top of the seventh, turning what had been a 2-1 Philadelphia advantage into a 4-2 Dodgers lead with back-to-back home runs off Matt Strahm. Mookie Betts connected first, swinging win probability 18.9 points in the Dodgers' favor, and Freddie Freeman followed with a blast of his own worth 15.8 points, giving Los Angeles a two-run cushion. J.D. Martinez added a double in the eighth off José Alvarado that moved the needle another 11.2 points, and for a stretch it appeared the Dodgers would hold. Philadelphia had built its early advantage partly through Nick Castellanos, whose fifth-inning double off Michael Grove carried an 11.3-point win-probability swing and pushed the Phillies to 2-1.
On the pitching side, Ranger Suarez led all hurlers with a WPA of plus-23.1, while Shelby Miller contributed plus-19.2 and Gregory Soto added plus-13.5 as Philadelphia's bullpen collectively held the line long enough for Schwarber to deliver. Schwarber finished as the game's dominant individual, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-58.6 and a RE24 of plus-2.6 — numbers that reflected how thoroughly his ninth-inning blast reshaped the outcome. Betts led Dodgers batters with a WPA of plus-14.9 and a RE24 of plus-1.6, though his contributions ultimately went unrewarded in the final tally.