Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles silenced American Family Field on June 8, 2023, dispatching the Milwaukee Brewers 6-3 in a game that remained tight through six innings before Baltimore took it over with a dominant late-game surge. The DiamondIQ model had opened with Milwaukee holding a 47 percent home win probability, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out as the Orioles outscored the Brewers 6-0 from the seventh inning onward.

The decisive moment came in the top of the eighth, when Gunnar Henderson connected on a home run off Peter Strzelecki that swung win probability by 40.3 percent in Baltimore's favor — the single largest leverage event of the game. Henderson finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-37.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.5, making him the clear offensive catalyst of the comeback. Ramón Urías had set the stage an inning earlier, hitting a home run off Joel Payamps for a plus-7.9 percent WPA swing that cracked open what had been a scoreless game since Milwaukee's three-run first. Urías ultimately finished second among position players with a plus-14.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.7. Adley Rutschman contributed steadily as well, posting a plus-8.2 percent WPA on the night.

On the pitching side, starter Colin Rea was the top performer by WPA for either club, posting a plus-26.7 percent figure while limiting Baltimore's lineup through multiple frames — including a key Ryan O'Hearn strikeout in the second that represented a minus-9.7 percent swing against the Orioles. Despite Rea's effort, Baltimore's bullpen work proved decisive; Yennier Cano contributed a plus-17.1 percent WPA and Keegan Akin added plus-8.8 percent as the Orioles' relief corps held Milwaukee scoreless after the first inning. Milwaukee committed one error and could not capitalize in the eighth, as Owen Miller's flyout off Cano represented a minus-12.9 percent swing that effectively ended any Brewers hopes of a rally.