MLB Recap · June 7, 2023

Kansas City Royals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

KC1
Final
MIA6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
KC001000000130
MIA00300003-680

The Story

The Miami Marlins handed the Kansas City Royals a 6-1 defeat at loanDepot park on June 7, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate largely anticipated, having set Miami's pre-game home win probability at 78 percent before watching it climb to 100 percent by the final out. The Marlins spread their six runs across two separate outbursts, plating three in the third inning and three more in the eighth, while Kansas City managed just three hits and never found a path back into the game.

The pivotal moment came in the bottom of the third, when Jesús Sánchez connected on a home run off Jordan Lyles that shifted Miami's win probability by plus-30.0 percent in a single swing, effectively seizing control of the contest. Kansas City's offense compounded its own difficulties, as Maikel Garcia grounded into a double play in the fifth off Edward Cabrera, costing the Royals 9.5 percent in win probability, and Vinnie Pasquantino followed with another double-play ball in the sixth off Steven Okert that bled off another 10.5 percent. Nick Pratto's single off Cabrera in the third represented Kansas City's brightest moment, adding 8.8 percent in win probability and accounting for the eventual lone run, but the Royals could not sustain any threat.

Sánchez finished as the game's most impactful player by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a plus-28.9 percent WPA and plus-4.0 RE24. Pratto led Royals hitters with a plus-14.1 percent WPA despite the lopsided outcome, while Andrew Nardi paced the Miami pitching staff with a plus-8.1 percent WPA, followed closely by Tanner Scott at plus-7.2 percent and Okert at plus-6.4 percent.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025KC bats firstFinalMIA win %KC win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 78.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jesús Sánchez Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Jordan Lyles
+30.0%
Vinnie Pasquantino Grounded Into DP
Top 6th · off Steven Okert
-10.5%
Maikel Garcia Grounded Into DP
Top 5th · off Edward Cabrera
-9.5%
Nick Pratto Single
Top 3rd · off Edward Cabrera
+8.8%
Bobby Witt Jr. Flyout
Top 4th · off Edward Cabrera
-8.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Jesús Sánchez+28.9%+4.0 RE24
Nick Pratto+14.1%+0.8 RE24
MJ Melendez+6.6%-0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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