Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the Washington Nationals a 6-2 defeat at Nationals Park on June 7, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate foreshadowed from the start, having placed Washington's pre-game win probability at just 36 percent before watching it fall to zero by the final out. Arizona struck early and decisively, plating three runs in the first inning to set a tone the Nationals never managed to reverse. Washington answered briefly in the third, where Lane Thomas provided the game's second-largest single-play win-probability swing with a double off Zach Davies worth plus 11.0 percent, and Luis García Jr. followed with a single worth plus 7.9 percent. Those two plays briefly gave the home side a foothold, but Jeimer Candelario grounded into a double play in that same frame, erasing 7.5 percent of Washington's win probability and blunting what could have been a more threatening rally.

Arizona methodically extended its advantage from there, and the pivotal blow of the late innings came in the seventh when Evan Longoria doubled off Carl Edwards Jr. for the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus 15.9 percent, adding to a 7-0 cushion that effectively ended any realistic Nationals comeback. Longoria finished as the game's top position player by WPA at plus 9.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.9, while Corbin Carroll posted the highest RE24 among Arizona batters at plus 2.0 to go with a plus 5.5 percent WPA contribution. Joey Meneses added plus 3.7 percent WPA on the Washington side. On the mound, Zach Davies was the game's most valuable pitcher by WPA at plus 22.4 percent despite absorbing the loss, with Patrick Corbin contributing plus 16.9 percent in relief and Scott McGough adding plus 13.3 percent as Arizona's bullpen closed out the final frames. Arizona's 15 hits against Washington's seven told the story of a game that was rarely competitive after the opening inning.