Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 2 |
| CIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds rallied past the Los Angeles Dodgers 9-8 at Great American Ball Park on June 6, 2023, completing one of the more dramatic reversals of the season. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 43 percent pre-game win probability for Cincinnati, a figure that shifted dramatically across nine innings before landing at 100 percent by the final out.
The game's center of gravity shifted twice in decisive fashion. In the top of the fourth, Freddie Freeman delivered a home run off Alex Young that swung win probability 28.0 percent in Los Angeles's favor, a blow that punctuated what became a five-run inning and gave the Dodgers an 8-3 lead through four frames. That advantage appeared commanding heading into the late innings, with the Reds managing only single runs in the fifth, sixth, and seventh against a Dodger bullpen that had otherwise kept Cincinnati at bay. The ninth inning unraveled entirely for Los Angeles, however. Caleb Ferguson could not record the final outs, surrendering a walk to Stuart Fairchild that shifted win probability 16.5 percent toward Cincinnati, followed by a walk to Curt Casali worth another 22.8 percent, and then a hit by pitch to Jake Fraley that produced the single largest swing of the game at plus 31.1 percent. Shelby Miller then allowed a Matt McLain single worth 15.9 percent, completing the three-run ninth that gave Cincinnati the 9-8 final.
Stuart Fairchild led all position players with a plus 29.3 percent WPA and 1.2 RE24, while Jake Fraley contributed plus 25.1 percent WPA and 0.9 RE24 despite reaching base on a hit by pitch. Freeman was the standout individual performer with a plus 24.1 percent WPA and a game-best 3.1 RE24 on the strength of his fourth-inning home run. On the pitching side, Evan Phillips was the most impactful arm of the evening at plus 13.3 percent WPA, while Fernando Cruz and Ian Gibaut each added modest positive contributions for Cincinnati before the ninth-inning chaos rendered those margins irrelevant.