Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres shut out the Chicago Cubs 5-0 on June 5, 2023, at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 57 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game turned decisively in the bottom of the second inning, where San Diego did the bulk of its damage against Kyle Hendricks. Gary Sánchez delivered the pivotal blow of the night, a home run off Hendricks that shifted win probability by 12.7 percent in the Padres' favor. The frame was further extended by a Ha-Seong Kim reached on a Cubs fielding error, worth 3.7 percent in win probability, and the inning closed with Rougned Odor's flyout contributing an additional 5.1 percent swing as baserunners had already done their work. San Diego added a run in the third on a Jake Cronenworth single off Hendricks, a play that moved the needle another 5.7 percent, and tacked on one more in the eighth to close out the scoring at five.

Blake Snell was the standout performer of the night by a wide margin, posting a WPA of plus-16.4 percent to lead all pitchers and effectively seal the outcome through his time on the mound. Steven Wilson and Nick Martinez contributed plus-2.9 and plus-1.9 percent respectively in relief to complete the shutout. On the offensive side, Sánchez finished as the top batter with a WPA of plus-11.9 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.1, while Manny Machado added plus-3.7 percent WPA and plus-0.6 RE24. The Cubs managed only four hits on the night, with Nico Hoerner's eighth-inning single off Martinez representing their lone moment of positive win-probability movement at plus-2.9 percent, though it produced nothing on the scoreboard. Chicago also committed an error, compounding their offensive struggles in a game that was largely decided before the fourth inning began.