MLB Recap · June 4, 2023

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

ATL8
Final
AZ5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
ATL0102001048140
AZ012200000581

The Story

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 8-5 at Chase Field on June 4, 2023, with a four-run ninth inning that turned a tight contest into a comfortable margin. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Arizona entering with a 53% win probability, but it closed at 0% as Atlanta's offense proved decisive late.

The game's defining moment came in the top of the ninth off Miguel Castro, when Eddie Rosario connected on a home run that shifted win probability by +75.2 percentage points in Atlanta's favor, the single largest swing of the game and the play that effectively ended Arizona's chances. Rosario finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, accumulating a +59.8% WPA and a +2.0 RE24 on the night. Ronald Acuña Jr. added a single in that same inning worth +20.1% WP, and he finished with a +26.6% WPA and +0.7 RE24. The Diamondbacks had stayed competitive through the middle innings largely on the strength of Ketel Marte, whose fourth-inning home run off Michael Soroka added +21.6% WP and accounted for a +23.0% WPA and +1.8 RE24 for Marte on the evening. Ozzie Albies had provided Atlanta an earlier lift with a fourth-inning home run off Zac Gallen worth +18.5% WP.

On the pitching side, Scott McGough led Atlanta's relievers with a +10.8% WPA, followed by AJ Smith-Shawver at +8.8% and Collin McHugh at +6.8%, a trio that helped preserve the lead through the middle innings before the offense made it academic in the ninth. Atlanta finished with 14 hits and committed no errors, while Arizona managed 8 hits and was charged with one error across the final box score.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025ATL bats firstFinalAZ win %ATL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 53% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Eddie Rosario Home Run
Top 9th · off Miguel Castro
+75.2%
Travis d'Arnaud Lineout
Top 9th · off Miguel Castro
-22.9%
Ketel Marte Home Run
Bot 4th · off Michael Soroka
+21.6%
Top 9th · off Miguel Castro
+20.1%
Ozzie Albies Home Run
Top 4th · off Zac Gallen
+18.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Eddie Rosario+59.8%+2.0 RE24
Ronald Acuña Jr.+26.6%+0.7 RE24
Ketel Marte+23.0%+1.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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