Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays took down the Boston Red Sox 4-2 at Fenway Park on June 3, 2023, handing the home side a result the DiamondIQ model had foreshadowed throughout, with Boston's pre-game win probability sitting at just 37% before falling to zero by the final out. The Rays scored in the third, sixth, and ninth innings while holding the Red Sox offense to five hits, with Tampa Bay's bullpen doing the heavy lifting to preserve the lead down the stretch.
The two highest-leverage moments of the game came from opposite dugouts and pulled the outcome in dramatically different directions. In the bottom of the seventh, a fielding error off Colin Poche gave Rafael Devers a +19.9% win-probability swing, the largest single boost for Boston on the night, briefly re-energizing Fenway as the Red Sox trimmed the deficit. That momentum, however, was erased in the top of the ninth when Harold Ramirez doubled off Kenley Jansen for a +21.2% swing, the game's single most decisive plate appearance, effectively sealing the result. Yandy Diaz followed with a single off Jansen for another +9.4% bump, and Tampa Bay plated two runs in the frame to put the game out of reach. By WPA, Ramirez led all players at +24.3%, while Devers finished second at +23.1% despite being on the losing side, his RE24 of +1.5 reflecting how genuinely dangerous Boston's moments of opportunity were.
On the pitching side, the Rays' relievers were collectively excellent. Brennan Bernardino posted the highest WPA among pitchers at +17.2%, followed by Calvin Faucher at +10.9% and Robert Stephenson at +8.4%, a trio that shut Boston down when it mattered most. For the Red Sox, Ryan Sherriff absorbed damage in both the fifth and sixth innings, surrendering Jose Siri's double for a +9.4% swing and Brandon Lowe's strikeout representing one of the few Tampa Bay misfires in those frames. With 10 hits and a bullpen that handled adversity cleanly, Tampa Bay controlled enough of the game's critical junctures to leave Fenway with a comfortable two-run victory.