MLB Recap · June 3, 2023

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

TB4
Final
BOS2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TB0010010024102
BOS000100100250

The Story

The Tampa Bay Rays took down the Boston Red Sox 4-2 at Fenway Park on June 3, 2023, handing the home side a result the DiamondIQ model had foreshadowed throughout, with Boston's pre-game win probability sitting at just 37% before falling to zero by the final out. The Rays scored in the third, sixth, and ninth innings while holding the Red Sox offense to five hits, with Tampa Bay's bullpen doing the heavy lifting to preserve the lead down the stretch.

The two highest-leverage moments of the game came from opposite dugouts and pulled the outcome in dramatically different directions. In the bottom of the seventh, a fielding error off Colin Poche gave Rafael Devers a +19.9% win-probability swing, the largest single boost for Boston on the night, briefly re-energizing Fenway as the Red Sox trimmed the deficit. That momentum, however, was erased in the top of the ninth when Harold Ramirez doubled off Kenley Jansen for a +21.2% swing, the game's single most decisive plate appearance, effectively sealing the result. Yandy Diaz followed with a single off Jansen for another +9.4% bump, and Tampa Bay plated two runs in the frame to put the game out of reach. By WPA, Ramirez led all players at +24.3%, while Devers finished second at +23.1% despite being on the losing side, his RE24 of +1.5 reflecting how genuinely dangerous Boston's moments of opportunity were.

On the pitching side, the Rays' relievers were collectively excellent. Brennan Bernardino posted the highest WPA among pitchers at +17.2%, followed by Calvin Faucher at +10.9% and Robert Stephenson at +8.4%, a trio that shut Boston down when it mattered most. For the Red Sox, Ryan Sherriff absorbed damage in both the fifth and sixth innings, surrendering Jose Siri's double for a +9.4% swing and Brandon Lowe's strikeout representing one of the few Tampa Bay misfires in those frames. With 10 hits and a bullpen that handled adversity cleanly, Tampa Bay controlled enough of the game's critical junctures to leave Fenway with a comfortable two-run victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TB bats firstFinalBOS win %TB win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 36.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Harold Ramírez Double
Top 9th · off Kenley Jansen
+21.2%
Rafael Devers Field Error
Bot 7th · off Colin Poche
+19.9%
Brandon Lowe Strikeout
Top 5th · off Ryan Sherriff
-9.5%
Yandy Díaz Single
Top 9th · off Kenley Jansen
+9.4%
Jose Siri Double
Top 6th · off Ryan Sherriff
+9.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Harold Ramírez+24.3%+1.3 RE24
Rafael Devers+23.1%+1.5 RE24
Triston Casas+12.2%+1.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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