MLB Recap · June 3, 2023

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

PHI4
Final
WSH2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PHI0110010104100
WSH000200000270

The Story

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Washington Nationals 4-2 at Nationals Park on June 3, 2023, handing the home side a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate had deemed a coin flip before first pitch, with Washington carrying a 52 percent pre-game win probability that ultimately collapsed to zero. Philadelphia scattered its four runs across the second, third, sixth, and eighth innings against a Nationals staff that held the Phillies scoreless in six of nine frames, while Washington managed two runs in a fourth-inning cluster that briefly gave the crowd reason for optimism.

The game's largest swing came in the bottom of the fourth, when Keibert Ruiz singled off Dylan Covey to shift win probability 14.9 points in Washington's favor, the closest the Nationals came to seizing control. That momentum proved short-lived. J.T. Realmuto countered with a home run off MacKenzie Gore in the top of the sixth that moved Philadelphia's chances by 13.7 points, restoring the Phillies' cushion at a critical juncture. Trea Turner had earlier set the tone with a double off Gore in the third that added 10.6 points of win probability, and the game was effectively sealed in the eighth when Jeimer Candelario grounded into a double play against Seranthony Dominguez, swinging 14.4 points away from Washington. Craig Kimbrel closed it out in the ninth, with CJ Abrams' strikeout to end the game representing a 12.0-point swing in Philadelphia's favor.

Among position players, Abrams led all batters with a plus-13.9 WPA despite finishing on the wrong side of the ledger, while Realmuto posted plus-11.5 WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.7 to pace the Phillies offensively. Turner added plus-7.9 WPA with a RE24 of plus-0.9, contributing meaningfully throughout the lineup. On the pitching side, Dominguez was the game's most impactful arm, generating plus-13.3 WPA out of the bullpen, with Gregory Soto adding plus-9.7 and Matt Strahm contributing plus-8.7 as Philadelphia's relief corps collectively shut down Washington's late chances.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PHI bats firstFinalWSH win %PHI win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 52.3% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Keibert Ruiz Single
Bot 4th · off Dylan Covey
+14.9%
Jeimer Candelario Double Play
Bot 8th · off Seranthony Domínguez
-14.4%
J.T. Realmuto Home Run
Top 6th · off MacKenzie Gore
+13.7%
CJ Abrams Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Craig Kimbrel
+12.0%
Trea Turner Double
Top 3rd · off MacKenzie Gore
+10.6%

Top Batters by WPA

CJ Abrams+13.9%+0.1 RE24
J.T. Realmuto+11.5%+0.7 RE24
Trea Turner+7.9%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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