Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres shut out the Chicago Cubs 6-0 on June 3, 2023, at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 57 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. San Diego built its advantage in measured bursts, scoring twice in the second, once in the third, and putting the game away with three more runs in the eighth, while Chicago managed just two hits and committed an error across nine innings.

The decisive swing came in the bottom of the third when Fernando Tatis Jr. connected on a home run off Drew Smyly, a play that shifted win probability by 7.8 percent and effectively extinguished any realistic Cubs comeback path. Before that, Trent Grisham had set the tone in the second inning with a double off Smyly that added 7.2 percent to San Diego's win probability, and Ha-Seong Kim extended the lead further with a double of his own in the fourth, worth 3.3 percent. On the Cubs side, Nico Hoerner's groundout against Yu Darvish in the top of the third represented the costliest missed opportunity, carrying a negative 3.2 percent swing that underscored how thoroughly Chicago was neutralized.

Yu Darvish was the dominant individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a remarkable plus-25.9 percent WPA to lead all pitchers. His command kept the Cubs' two-hit offense completely at bay. Among hitters, Tatis Jr. led the way at plus-7.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.2, followed by Grisham at plus-6.4 percent WPA and Kim at plus-5.3 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus-1.5, giving San Diego a well-distributed offensive contribution to complement its pitching.