MLB Recap · June 2, 2023

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

NYY4
Final
LAD8

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYY010100002451
LAD60100100-8130

The Story

The Los Angeles Dodgers handed the New York Yankees a convincing 8-4 defeat on June 2, 2023, at Dodger Stadium, a game that was effectively decided before the first inning was complete. The DiamondIQ model entered with a 57 percent home win probability for Los Angeles, and by the time the first inning concluded that number had swung decisively in the Dodgers' favor, ultimately reaching 100 percent at the final out. The Dodgers plated six runs in the bottom of the first, setting a tone the Yankees could never reverse, finishing the night with 13 hits against New York's zero errors to Los Angeles's none.

The game's most consequential sequence unfolded in the opening frame at the expense of Luis Severino. Freddie Freeman was picked off at third base in the bottom of the first, a play that registered a +9.1 percent win-probability swing in the Dodgers' favor, reflecting how threatening the situation had already become. Max Muncy followed by adding a home run off Severino in that same inning for another +3.6 percent swing, then struck out in the second in a moment worth +8.3 percent to Los Angeles. Muncy finished as the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating +11.8 percent WPA and a +1.2 RE24. J.D. Martinez contributed a home run off Severino in the third, adding another +2.8 percent to the Dodgers' probability margin.

On the pitching side, Clayton Kershaw was the game's dominant individual, posting a +14.0 percent WPA, the highest of any player on either side. His influence was evident as early as the second inning, when Anthony Volpe's flyout against him registered a -9.1 percent swing for New York's chances, the single most damaging batting event of the night for the Yankees. Mookie Betts rounded out Los Angeles's standout performers with a +4.7 percent WPA and a team-leading +3.2 RE24. The Yankees managed only five hits and committed one error, and their two-run ninth came far too late to challenge a deficit that had been insurmountable since the opening frame.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYY bats firstFinalLAD win %NYY win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 56.8% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Anthony Volpe Flyout
Top 2nd · off Clayton Kershaw
-9.1%
Freddie Freeman Pickoff 3B
Bot 1st · off Luis Severino
+9.1%
Max Muncy Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Luis Severino
+8.3%
Max Muncy Home Run
Bot 1st · off Luis Severino
+3.6%
J.D. Martinez Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Luis Severino
+2.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Max Muncy+11.8%+1.2 RE24
Freddie Freeman+7.8%-1.2 RE24
Mookie Betts+4.7%+3.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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